The National Intelligence Council, in its first assessment in four years for shaping US strategic thinking, said that China will surpass the United States as the largest economy in the 2020s, in line with independent forecasts.
But the study said that the United States, while weaker, will likely stay the top player in two decades thanks to its role in resolving global crises, its technological prowess and its “soft power” that attracts outsiders.
“The US most likely will remain ‘first among equals’ among the other great powers in 2030 because of its preeminence across a range of power dimensions and legacies of its leadership role,” the 137-page report said.
“Nevertheless, with the rapid rise of other countries, the ‘unipolar moment’ is over and Pax Americana – the era of American ascendancy in international politics that began in 1945 – is fast winding down,” it said.
The study predicted that Asia’s economy would surpass those of North America and Europe joined by 2030 but warned of major uncertainty over an emerging China.
“If Beijing fails to transition to a more sustainable, innovation-based economic model, it will remain a top-tier player in Asia, but the influence surrounding what has been a remarkable ascendance will dissipate,” it said.
The study warned that climate change threatened to pose serious changes in the world, aggravating the hunt for vital resources.
With a growing population and rising incomes, the planet’s demand for water, food and energy will grow by 35, 40 and 50 percent by 2030, it said.Source: Bangkok Post “US ‘first among equals’ in 2030” Read the full report: http://www.scribd.com/doc/115962650/GlobalTrends-2030
- US National Intelligence Council says China’s global power more than EU and USA combined by 2030 (chinadailymail.com)
- U.S. Intelligence Agencies See a Different World in 2030 – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
- Four ‘Megatrends’ Reshaping the World: U.S. Intel (bloomberg.com)
- US will be ‘first among equals’ in 2030 (telegraph.co.uk)
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