Six wars China is sure to fight in the next 50 years

China Soldiers Landing

China Soldiers Landing

On July 8, 2013, the pro-PRC Chinese-language newspaper, Wenweipo, published an article titled “中國未來50年裡必打的六場戰爭 (Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years)”.

The anticipated six wars are all irredentist in purpose – the reclaiming of what the Chinese believe to be national territories lost since Imperial China was defeated by the Brits in the Opium War of 1840-42. That defeat, in the view of Chinese nationalists, began China’s “Hundred Years of Humiliation.” (See: Maria Hsia Chang, Return of the Dragon: China’s Wounded Nationalism. Westview, 2001.)

Below is the English translation of the article, from a Hong Kong blog, Midnight Express 2046. (The year 2046 is an allusion to what this blog believes will be the last year of Beijing’s “One County, Two Systems” formula for ruling Hong Kong, and “the last year of brilliance of Hong Kong.”)

Midnight Express 2046 (ME2046) believes this article “is quite a good portrait of modern Chinese imperialism.” What ME2046 omits are:

the original Chinese-language article identifies the source of the article as 中新網 (

The Chinese-language title of the article includes the word by (), which means “must” or “necessary” or “surely.” That is why  the word “sure” in the English-language title of the article.


China is not yet a unified great power. This is a humiliation of the Chinese people, a shame for the children of the Yellow Emperor. For the sake of national unification and dignity, China has to fight six wars in the coming fifty years. Some are regional wars; the others may be total wars. No matter what is the nature, each one of them is inevitable for Chinese unification.


Though we are enjoying peace on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, we should not daydream a resolution of peaceful unification from Taiwan administration (no matter it is Chinese Nationalist Party or Democratic Progressive Party). Peaceful unification does not fit their interests while running for elections. Their stance is therefore to keep to the status quo (which is favorable to the both parties, each of them can get more bargaining chips) For Taiwan, “independence” is just a mouth talk than a formal declaration, while “unification” is just an issue for negotiation than for real action. The current situation of Taiwan is the source of anxiety to China, since everyone can take the chance to bargain more from China.

China must work out a strategy to unify Taiwan within the next ten years, that is, by 2020. By then, China will have to send an ultimatum to Taiwan, demanding the Taiwanese to choose the resolution of peaceful unification (the most preferred epilogue for the Chinese) or war (an option forced to be so) by 2025. For the purpose of unification, China has to make preparation three to five years earlier. So when the time comes, the Chinese government must act on either option, to give a final answer to the problem.

From the analysis of the current situation, Taiwan is expected to be defiant towards unification, so military action will be the only solution. This war of unification will be the first war under the sense of modern warfare since the establishment of the “New China”. This war will be a test to the development of the People’s Liberation Army in modern warfare. China may win this war easily, or it may turn out to be a difficult one. All depends on the level of intervention of the U.S. and Japan. If the U.S. and Japan play active roles in aiding Taiwan, or even make offensives into the Chinese mainland, the war must become a difficult and prolonged total war. On the other hand, if the U.S. and Japan just watch and see, the Chinese army can easily defeat the Taiwanese. In this case, Taiwan can be under control within three months. Even if the U.S. And Japan step in at this stage, the war can be finished within six months.


After unification of Taiwan, China will take a rest for two years. During the period of recovery, China will send the ultimatum to the countries surrounding the Islands with the deadline of 2028. The countries having disputes on the sovereignty of the Islands can negotiate with China on preserving their shares of investments in these Islands by giving up their territorial claims. If not, once China declares war on them, their investments and economic benefits will be taken over by China.

At this moment, the South East Asian countries are already shivering with the Chinese military unification of Taiwan. On one hand, they will be sitting by the negotiation table, yet they are reluctant to give up their interests in the Islands. Therefore, they will be taking the wait-and-see attitude and keep delaying to make the final decision. They will not decide whether to make peace or go into war until China takes any firm actions. The map below shows the situation of territorial claims over the Spratly Islands. (Map omitted)

Besides, the U.S. will not just sit and watch China “reconquesting” the Islands. In the 1st war mentioned above, the U.S. may be too late to join the war, or simply unable to stop China from reunifying Taiwan. This should be enough to teach the U.S. a lesson not to confront too openly with China. Still, the U.S. will aid those South East Asian countries, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, under the table. Among the countries surrounding the South China Sea, only Vietnam and the Philippines dare to challenge China’s domination. Still, they will think twice before going into war with China, unless they fail on the negotiation table, and are sure they can gain military support from the U.S.

The best option for China is to attack Vietnam, since Vietnam is the most powerful country in the region. Beating Vietnam can intimidate the rest. While the war with Vietnam goes on, other countries will not move. If Vietnam loses, others will hand their islands back to China. If the opposite, they will declare war on China.

Of course, China will beat Vietnam and take over all the islands. When Vietnam loses the war and its islands, others countries, intimidated by Chinese military power, yet still with greediness to keep their interest, will negotiate with China, returning the islands and declaring allegiance to China. So China can build the ports and place troops on these islands, extending its influence into the Pacific Ocean.

Up till now, China has made a thorough breakthrough of the First Island Chain and infiltrated the Second one, Chinese aircraft carrier can have free access into the Pacific Ocean, safeguarding its own interests.


China and India share a long border, but the only sparking point of conflicts between the two countries is only the part of Southern Tibet. China has long been the imaginary enemy of India. The military objective of India is to surpass China. India aims to achieve this by self-development and importing advanced military technologies and weapons from the U.S, Russia and Europe, chasing closely to China in its economic and military development.

In India, the official and media’s attitude is more friendly towards the U.S, Russia and Europe, and is repellent or even hostile against China. This leads to unresolvable conflicts with China. On the other hand, India values itself highly with the aid from the U.S, Russia and Europe, thinking it can beat China in wars. This is also the reason of long-lasting land disputes.

Twenty years later, although India will lag behind more compared to China in military power, yet it is still one of the few world powers. If China uses military force to conquer Southern Tibet, it has to bear some losses. In my opinion, the best strategy for China is to incite the disintegration of India. By dividing into several countries, India will have no power to cope with China.

Of course, such plan may fail. But China should at least try its best to incite Assam province and once conquered Sikkim to gain independence, to weaken the power of India. This is the best strategy.

The second best plan is to export advanced weapons to Pakistan, helping Pakistan to conquer Southern Kashmir region in 2035 and to achieve its unification. While India and Pakistan are busy fighting against each other, China should take a Blitz to conquer Southern Tibet, at the time occupied by India.

India will not be able to fight a two front war, and is deemed to lose both. China can retake Southern Tibet easily, while Pakistan can control the Kashmir. If this plan cannot be adopted, the worst case is direct military action to take back Southern Tibet.

After the first two wars, China has rested for around ten years, and has become a world power both in terms of military and economy. There will only be the U.S. and Europe (on the condition that it becomes a united country. If not, this will be replaced by Russia. But from my point of view, European integration is probable) able to cope with China in the top three list in world power.

After taking back Taiwan and Spratly Islands, China has great leap forward in its military power in army, navy, air force and space warfare. China will be on the leading role in its military power, may be only second to the U.S. Therefore, India will lose this war.


In the mid-21st century, China emerges as the real world power, accompanied with the decline of Japan and Russia, stagnant U.S. and India and the rise of Central Europe. That will be the best time for China to take back Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands. 

Many people may know that Diaoyu Island is the land of China since the ancient times, but have no idea that the Japanese annexed Ryukyu Island (now named as Okinawa, with U.S. military base). The society and the government of China is misled by the Japanese while they are discussing on the issues of the East China Sea, such as the “middle-line” set by the Japanese or “Okinawa issue” (Ryukyu Islands in Chinese), by coming to think that Ryukyu Islands are the ancient lands of Japan.

What a shame for such ignorance! From the historical records of Chinese, Ryukyu and other countries (including Japan), Ryukyu has long been the vassal states of China since ancient times, which means the islands are the lands of China. In this case, is the “middle line” set by Japan in the East China Sea justified? Does Japan have anything to do with the East China Sea? (Those who have no idea in these details may refer to “Ryukyu: An indispensable part of China since the ancient times” written by me)

The Japanese has robbed our wealth and resources in the East China Sea and unlawfully occupied Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands for many years, the time will come that they have to pay back. At that time, we can expect that the U.S. will be willing to intervene but has weakened; Europe will keep silent; Russia will sit and watch the fight. The war can end within half of a year with overwhelming victory of China. Japan will have no choice but to return Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands to China. East China Sea becomes the inner lake of China. Who dare to put a finger on it?


Though there are advocates for reunification of Outer Mongolia at the moment, is this idea realistic? Those unrealistic guys in China are just fooling themselves and making a mistake in strategic thinking. This is just no good to the great work of unification of Outer Mongolia.

After taking Taiwan, we should base our territorial claims on the constitution and domain of the Republic of China (some people may raise a question here: why should we base our claims on the constitution and domain of the Republic of China? In such case, isn’t the People’s Republic of China being annexed by the Republic of China? This is a total bullshit. I will say: the People’s Republic of China is China; the Republic of China is China too. As a Chinese, I only believe that unification means power. The way which can protect the Chinese best from foreign aggression is the best way to the Chinese people.

We also need to know that the People’s Republic of China recognizes the independence of Outer Mongolia. Using the constitution and domain of the People’s Republic of China to unify Outer Mongolia is naked aggression. We can only have legitimate cause to military action using the constitution and domain of the Republic of China. What’s more, it is the case after Taiwan being taken over by China. So isn’t it meaningless to argue which entity being unified?). China should raise the issue of unification with Outer Mongolia, and to take propaganda campaigns inside Outer Mongolia. China should also pick the groups advocating the unification, aiding them to take over key posts in their government, and to proclaim Outer Mongolia as the core interests of China upon the settlement of Southern Tibet issue by 2040.

If Outer Mongolia can return to China peacefully, it is the best result of course; but if China meets foreign intervention or resistance, China should be ready to take military action. Taiwan model can be useful in this case: giving an ultimatum with deadline in the Year 2045. Let Outer Mongolia to consider the case for few years. If they refuse the offer, then military action takes off.

In this moment, the previous four wars have been settles. China has the political, military and diplomatic power to unify Outer Mongolia. The weakened U.S. and Russia dare not to get involved except diplomatic protests; Europe will take a vague role; while India, Africa and Central Asian countries will remain silent. China can dominate Outer Mongolia within three years’ time. After the unification, China will place heavy troops on frontier to monitor Russia. China will take ten years to build up elemental and military infrastructure to prepare for the claim of territorial loss from Russia.


The current Sino-Russian relationship seems to be a good one, which is actually a result of no better choice facing the U.S. In reality, the two countries are meticulously monitoring the each other. Russia fears the rise of China threaten its power; while China never forgets the lands lost to Russia. When the chance comes, China will take back the lands lost.

After the victories of the previous five wars by 2050, China will make territorial claims based on the domain of Qing Dynasty (similar way by making use of the domain of the Republic of China to unify Outer Mongolia) and to make propaganda campaigns favoring such claims. Efforts should also be made to disintegrate Russia again.

In the days of “Old China”, Russia has occupied around one hundred and sixty million square kilometre of lands, equivalent to one-sixth of the landmass of current domain of China. Russia is therefore the bitter enemy of China. After the victories of previous five wars, it is the time to make Russians pay their price.

There must be a war with Russia. Though at that time, China has become an advanced power in navy, army, air and space forces, it is nevertheless the first war against a nuclear power. Therefore, China should be well prepared in nuclear weapons, such as the nuclear power to strike Russia from the front stage to the end. When the Chinese army deprives the Russians’ ability to counter strike, they will come to realize that they can no longer match China in the battlefield. They can do nothing but to hand over their occupied lands and to pay a heavy price to their invasions

Source: Stratrisks – Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years

Categories: Defence & Aerospace

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

68 replies

  1. Reblogged this on Oyia Brown.


  2. Reblogged this on oogenhand and commented:
    China should begin by solving its demographic problems. Capturing women and breeding with them would lower Chinese IQ, and won’t solve the graying of the population. Also, would Iran allow its vassals China and Russia to go at each other throats? I don’t think so.
    Given China’s demographic problems, it would be well advised to adopt a religion/ideology that has both euthanasia and eternal damnation, like mine.


  3. Tell your conquest to the United Nations. The PRC is afraid to confront Philippines by arbitration of the UNCLOS, and offers direct talks. This means, it is baseless for the China to intimidate small countries since their biggest enemy shall be the UN.


  4. By reading this article it is just obvious that China is a threat to world peace. They are planning war to a world tired of war, you people never learn from history. As China progress into “golden Age” they will do a territorial expansion and this is what this article is, just a classic Chinese History rewritten. So what comes after Expansion and coquest, back again to chaos, despair and the people they wage war with rises and enslave the chinese again. This is an endless saga until someone from china put an end to waging war and be contented with their Golden AGE. By the way those territories are never chinese in the first place an example of which is the spratly islands, they belong to the ASEAN People.


  5. wake up! your dreaming….


  6. “….yet still with greediness (of ASEAN countries) to keep their interest, …”
    Just grow up!!
    The only greedy country enough to claim more territories with force is YOU. And While you’re performing your so-called “Economic Growth by all means necessary,” you are also “re-conguesting” your people and the world with POLUTION.


  7. This is a Chinese madness.. they cannot even pass the 1st war. before they start any of these wars, I’m pretty sure all the Nation that has a dispute with China will join the war to put down China on her knees.. Go on china! dig your own grave!!


  8. I’d like to step in and say that not only was this an opinion piece, the comments section are filled with people ridiculing the author. For example:

    Translation: [this author] played too many games at a netcafe

    Translation: if you have the guts to fire guns, kill the dog government officials first!

    Translation: nonsense (literally “shit talk”)

    Translation: What a fantasy (literally “beautiful unto death”)! How come you didn’t add three more wars to fight: reclaiming the entire Korean peninsula, taking back Vietnam, annexing Japan? (The first three words imply heavy sarcasm).

    The point is, every country has its own loud radicalists, yet the loudest people are not necessarily the most representative people.


  9. they forgot to wrote the 7th war. 2060-2065
    ASEAN countries + S korea, USA, Japan, NZ and Australia will fight back regain position to spratlys and the defeated vietnam. At least 10 countries combined will attack china and carpet bomb their mainland and capital. This event will turn their country into a middle age era and became beggar & humiliated again.


  10. By that time I am the “Iron Man”.. and support who pays.. 🙂


  11. Wishful thinking by the arrogant chinese. Freedom to the Uighurs and FREE TIBET!


  12. Great story. Looks like China is really getting ready for the world stage.


  13. China and His Fantasy World, Fooling oneself, Does the people of this country read the history of Hitler and his Fanatics????????


  14. What an idiotic article and the people who believe in this tripe. This is a ridiculous article and what’s worse is that people actually believe and comment on it. Silly.


    • Thank you for your comment; no one thinks you are silly. The article is a direct translation from one written in Chinese by the pro-PRC newspaper Wenweipo. Many people believe it is the vision of the PLA, though doubts are cast on whether China actually has the capacity to carry through with it’s vision.


  15. at the start i already doubtful about this articles but for the benifit of the doubt I enjoy reading it. Taiwan will never be reunited with the communist China much more they are happy with the americans. Americans will go to war with China if taiwan will be invaded just like the situation of Korea. Both Taiwan and Skorea are in the americans hand.
    Chinese are not interested in war either for they are enjoying the booming business.


  16. This is why we should stop buying anything that’s made in China so that their economy wou–
    …Oh, wait.


  17. I don’t believe this. Everything coming from China is fake including this illusion. China, please enumerate what wars you have won. Vietnam kicked your ass when you invaded. Russia did too. The only country you can bully is Tibet, a nation of monks..


  18. Well, just make sure the “Chinese Arab Spring” does not get to your people first.


  19. India and Pakistan are already Nuclear powers… so Russia will not be the first Nuclear power China will face… Very ill informed!


  20. wow that is very…. “chinese” 😉


  21. this is just a story of the once poor chinese people coming into power and wealth wants to dominate the world. they are planning these events because they have became proud and ambitious like when japan was a rising power and became an imperialist before and during the second world war. the chinese people have not learned their lesson until they are annihilated in a nuclear war that will be unleashed upon them when they try to conquer the world. this is the work of satan their master who is the big red dragon that they worship and is deceiving them into believing they can be powerful enough if they conquer territories and be like Gods on their own.


  22. impossible china’s nightmare.


  23. ohh!! what a nice dream for china…


  24. Developed nations especially the investors should start moving out from China. The progress they brought China are actually aiding in the Chinese aggressive, proud and ambitious military hegemonic stance. Progress and development shall be used within the civilized global principle and not plan on war against anyone.


  25. This should be subtitled “How to learn nothing from your own history”. I’m sure there would be a couple of civil wars thrown in there if things did develop like this.


  26. Lets Get it on!!!


  27. Reblogged this on Gorgeous and commented:
    Scary thought


  28. delusional article….China will not dare attack Taiwan and if ever their stupid leaders do so they will be crushed by all free loving nations around the world. 6 wars??? they will not even pass the first one.


  29. China won’t fight conventional warfare they can will use emf ICBMs nano bio drones ; the will jam all world communication if they wish the have there own GPS satellite networks . they won’t waist time with regional conflicts the finincal war is gaining and then they will strike they have the worlds largest army and building more aircraft carriers nuke subs I also know of under ground city’s and under sea sub baces. From what I am told pax Americana will be over in 2 day strikes white paper plans don’t be fooled they are no paper tiger


  30. China will fight USA first, say next 5 years.


  31. When China faced the great humiliations of the 19th century, the western powers (and Japanese to some extent) made the monumental mistake of not carving the inland provinces up in to separate countries and populating them with new minorities to settle, overtake and eventually marginalize the Han Chinese.

    The Han Chinese themselves understand this tactic all too well, and have carried it out with great success in Tibet, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Mongolia, Malaysia, Singapore, HK, and all other ethnic Han Chinese enclaves around the world.

    If China really has the stomach for these six wars that it lays out (and only time will tell…China likes to push the line to test for weakness in an enemy, but usually knows when to stop) then it risks in the event of defeat, being permanently partitioned into numerous smaller nations that are not ethno-politically homogenous, not particularly Han Chinese friendly.

    Russia has both the largest tested (50 megaton) and largest produced (100 megaton) nuclear warheads, and the US has somewhat smaller, but more effective ones, as well as a plethora of delivery systems to put them on target. India has a populace that is more than capable of countering the Chinese threat into “South Tibet” and also poses a real risk that China could lose some of it’s current holdings in Tibet if it rattle’s India’s cage too much. India is also a nuclear power, and has some incredible rocket and propulsion scientists that could surely make sure that their nuclear deterrent can hit China’s western and south-central metropolises. Think of Chengdu and Chongqing)

    It would also put ethnic Han Chinese enclaves around the world at risk of retribution if it chooses to use military options. If China thinks that the next countries in line in its “string of pearls” conquest strategy are just going to sit idly by and wait for their turn to be attacked, then China is deluding itself, and risks getting itself ganged up upon by the targeted nations.

    Good luck China! I certainly wouldn’t recommend you play poker since you play your cards so dangerously far away form the vest. Arrogance portends the fall.


  32. This reads a little too blatantly as provocative anti-Chinese disinformation. Which strategist in their right mind would announce their detailed plans for conquest in advance? Not only that, who would put forth the arguments used herein to justify aggression for territorial claims on behalf of long extinct dynastic empires that have nothing systemically and legally in common with the state existing today.
    And the final question – are we to believe that the Chinese are this stupid?
    Although the strategic value to China of the Diaoyu and Ryukyu cannot be denied, this is the preferred method of propaganda – throw in valid arguments with the bogus claims in order to broaden the scope and semi-legitimize the fallacious.
    Finally, the author is non-Chinese by the look of it. Say no more.


  33. China is a bunch of sociopathic lunatics choking on thier own pollution.


  34. War for the sake of war is a path to destruction. When one rushes to war how can one then rush to peace if events go awry. Everything in this article is common knowledge with regards to the Intent or plans by the leadership in China. The expected results though are far from logical. This sounds like a campaign to gather information from future adversaries and the will of their people. Make no mistake, a independent, strong, and sovereign India is critical to Russia’s interest and survival. A war that threatens that will bring war with Russia.


  35. Don’t forget the nth war with Godzilla. That will complete this N-part fantasy movie.


    • Please note the error in the article!!! The author should have written one million six hundred thousand square kilometres of land, not one hundred and sixty million which is more than all the land on planet earth!!!

      it seems that much better planning would be required

      “in the days of “Old China”, Russia has occupied around one hundred and sixty million square kilometre of lands, equivalent to one-sixth of the landmass of current domain of China. Russia is therefore the bitter enemy of China.”



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