Could a Russia-China alliance save Russia from collapse?

A “Russian-doll” building in Inner Mongolia. China will not give up its partnership with Russia, an analyst says.

A “Russian-doll” building in Inner Mongolia. China will not give up its partnership with Russia, an analyst says.

As soon as the US began to adopt its policy of a pivot to Asia to encircle China, China switched to Russia’s side by joining Russian veto over Syria issue.

China followed Sun Tze’s teaching in The Art of War, that subduing the enemy by diplomacy is the second best strategy.

I regard it as Obama’s stupid blunder, as a Chinese-Russian alliance can challenge US world leadership.

However, at that time, the US still had room to manoeuvre, as Russia did not want China as its ally eagerly.

It was seeking improvement of relations with Japan in spite of the hot maritime territorial dispute between China and Japan.

Obama came out to facilitate the establishment of the Chinese-Russian alliance again. He drove Russia to China’s side by taking the lead in imposing sanctions on Russia for the Ukraine issue. I described the consequence of Obama’s error in my post “China the Biggest Winner in US-Russian Confrontation” on August 7.

Perhaps US experts believe that it is impossible for Russia to be China’s ally as Putin fears that China will weaken Russia’s Asia pivot. That is the opinion of Josh Cohen in his article “Putin’s fear of China weakens Russia’s Asia pivot.

Cohen is a former U.S. State Department project officer involved in managing economic reform projects in the former Soviet Union. He currently works for a satellite technology company and contributes to a number of foreign policy focused media outlets.

In spite of being such an experienced Russia watcher, Cohen ignores the dire predicament Russia is in now due to US and its allies’ sanctions and efforts to push down oil prices in order to crush Russia.

Who can rescue Russia now? Only China is able and willing to. China is not only willing but anxious to rescue Russia as it needs Russia in confronting the US.

Americans may think that China has the best opportunity to recover the 2 million hectares of land it lost to Russia long ago. Sadly for Americans, that is not Chinese way. A friend in need is a friend indeed. Helping Russia now will establish long-term friendship between Russian and Chinese people. It will bring benefit to both people for centuries.

For the time being, the Russian-Chinese alliance is but a short-term one aiming at joining forces to counter the US. If the US eases its pressure on Russia or China, the alliance will weaken and even disappear.

However, if China helps Russia now when Russia is on the verge of collapse and no one is willing or capable to rescue Russia, the resulting friendship between Russian and Chinese people will last for a long time.

Therefore, Russia’s predicament now is not an opportunity for China to hurt Russia but the opportunity for long-term good neighbourly relationship between the two countries. I believe that Xi has the wisdom and vision to act that way. SCMP also believes so. It says in its report “Beijing may boost project spending in Russia amid rouble crisis” today, it says: “Although a direct handout is unlikely, China might help the Russian economy by boosting funding for projects, mainland analysts say.”

Perhaps being a Hong Kong newspaper, SCMP knows China much better.

Anyway, for the time being, under intensifying Western pressure, Russia will be forced to export its top weapons and weapon technology to China in exchange for financial aid from China to defend its currency. Obama is helping China to win and win greatly.

The following is the full text of SCMP’s report:

Beijing may boost project spending in Russia amid rouble crisis

Although a direct handout is unlikely, China might help the Russian economy by boosting funding for projects, mainland analysts say

China is preparing to flex its financial strength amid the economic crisis in Russia as it closely watches how the slump of the Russian rouble affects cooperation between the two countries, mainland analysts have said.

They said Beijing was unlikely to send aid to Moscow, but it would boost infrastructure and investment projects to stop the collapse of the Russian economy, a result that would hurt the two nations’ joint attempts to build influence in international affairs.

China and Russia have both described their relationship as reaching a “new stage” after the signing of massive cooperation deals in recent months, including an agreement for Beijing to import 38 billion cubic metres of gas annually, starting in 2019. Companies have already started talks about building the necessary pipeline to deliver the gas.

But a continued drop in the Russian economy could leave Moscow unable to complete the pipeline, and Chinese capital – possibly a concessionary loan – could be required, analysts said.

“This will affect delivery of the gas,” said Wang Haiyun, a former attaché at the Chinese embassy in Moscow.

“China will actively consider whether Russia demands more Chinese investment input into the project.”

In remarks seen as signalling Beijing’s support for Moscow, foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang said Russia had enough reserves and resources to resolve the crisis.

China and Russia have long sought to present a united front on the global stage, often as a counterweight to the United States.

In a security conference in Shanghai in May, President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin said they opposed interference in a nation’s domestic affairs and the use of unilateral sanctions.

The comments were seen as a veiled attack on Washington, which had levelled sanctions against Moscow for annexing Crimea from Ukraine, and had irked Beijing by strengthening ties with Asian nations in sovereignty disputes with China.

Li Lifan, a Russian affairs expert at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said a collapse of the Russian economy would affect China’s international standing.

“China will not give up its partnership with Russia because that would definitely affect China’s influence in setting its agenda in international governance,” he said. “Both nations need each other, especially in counterbalancing the US.”

Li said Russia expected to lure more Chinese investment and boost exports to China to offset the impact of sanctions. This in turn could boost China’s imports of Russian high technology.

Li Xing, a professor of Russian affairs at Beijing Normal University, said China was deeply concerned about the financial crisis, and would step up investment in Russia’s Far East region.

Source: SCMP – “Beijing may boost project spending in Russia amid rouble crisis”



Categories: Trade & Investment

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6 replies

  1. Reblogged this on 1EarthUnited and commented:
    Unity of nations is the future, US… live & learn

    Like

Trackbacks

  1. China Premier says respects Ukraine integrity, won’t be drawn on Crimea | China Daily Mail
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