If 2020 was the year of pandemic then 2021 will be the year of creation of new blocks and disruptive technologies. Countries like China will take advantage of a vulnerable world and strengthen their position. This year may go down in the history when disruptive technologies would be seriously employed without giving much thought to human values.
The top likely and desired strategic trends of 2021 could be:
- China moves to the Americas
- The South China Sea is passé watch out for the Indian Ocean Region
- NATO: Turkey out and Russia in
- Halting the Chinese bandwagon in the Middle East and the Mediterranean
- Pakistan in Israeli Orbit
- Technology that scares you
China Moves to Americas
“When China does business in places like Latin America, it often injects corrosive capital into the economic bloodstream, giving life to corruption, and eroding good governance.” – US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on a visit to Latin America in April 2019.
In the post-Covid world, China has comfortably established its hegemony in Asia. It has further consolidated the position through RCEP. Having done that, it will make its move in the Western Hemisphere, before the new US President gets comfortable in his post. China has learned the trick from the United States.
It observed that the US could freely roam all over the planet, intruding in the policies of countries, since it had clear cut superiority in the Western Hemisphere. China wants to remove that level of comfort for the US. If China could entangle the United States in the Americas, it will not have time and energy to pay attention to Chinese politics.
China has been working relentlessly on this policy for years. It has nurtured a relationship with Venezuela and Cuba. Next in line are Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina. China has diligently exploited the grave situation created by the coronavirus in Latin America and made swift moves in the backyard of the USA.
They provided equipment and expertise for the pandemic that originated from their own country. They also promised to provide $1bn loans for acquiring vaccine whenever it was available. The wolf warrior diplomats used social media to the hilt and embarked on a blitzkrieg of propaganda of good deeds China was doing.
In the name of help, China has created a huge space for itself along with business opportunities for its companies. Latinos were thrilled and never bothered to question China, that how has the virus reached remote corners of Patagonia, Santa Cruz, Argentina. Mexico’s foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard even tweeted “Gracias China!!!”.
Canada is another country that may spring surprises for the United States. Despite the relationships at their historic low, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau invited PLA to observe the Canadian military’s winter survival training on a Canadian military base in 2018. Canada also pusillanimously sent 171 soldiers to China to attend Military World Games in Oct 2019.
China is now the number one trade partner to Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Uruguay, and others. If Mexico is excluded, China’s trade with the region exceeded more than $223 billion versus U.S. trade of $198 billion in 2019. The U.S. needs to get back in the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade bloc to somewhat restore its prestige and position in Latin America.
In 2021, China will be further consolidating its position by taking the war to the American shores, nibbling, and poking at it from all directions. Applying Ostrich’s mentality when it comes to Chinese moves in the Americas would dent the United States’ image beyond repair.
South China Sea is Passé – Watch Out for Indian Ocean Region
“There are over 120 warships of extra-regional forces deployed in the Indian Ocean Region in support of various missions.”- Indian Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat
The South China Sea was the hottest zone in 2020. That phase has passed. China has achieved two objectives that it had set for itself. Try and test the new Theatre Command structure and cohesiveness against the best navy in the world: the US Navy. The other objective was to get the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) ratified by the battered Asia-Pacific economies. The agreement is heavily tilted in China’s favour…
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Continue to read this, my latest article, on India’s most respected Think-Tank platform, ‘Chanakya Forum’:
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