The danger of war is in South China Sea, not Taiwan

The US navy conducted a dual-aircraft carrier exercise in the South China Sea last year

I said in my post “Take Taiwan by a War with US in South China Sea” yesterday that amphibious invasion of Taiwan will be costly due to Taiwan’s fortified defense but a naval blockade will be much easier to subdue Taiwan. However, US Navy may break the blockade so that China has to first defeat US Navy in the South China Sea.

Therefore, US Secretary of State Blinken’s threat of consequence of change of status quo (meaning invasion of Taiwan) and China’s warning on US officials’ contacts with Taiwan mentioned in Reuters report “‘Don’t play with fire on Taiwan, China warns U.S.” yesterday are but oral war. The real war will be in the South China Sea.

China is fiercely intensify its activities in the disputed waters within China’s nine-dash line and the exclusive economic zone claimed by the Philippines. It even sent its missile fast boats to drive a Philippine civilian vessel from the area claimed by China. The US, though claimed that it would perform its treaty obligations to protect the Philippines if Philippine civilians have been attacked by Chinese military but turned a blind eye to the incident.

In fact, China has been aggravating the tensions there on purpose to challenge the US. If US fleets in the South China Sea have really interfere by attacking any Chinese vessel, whether civilian or military, China will have the excuse to attack US fleets in the South China Sea where it has geographical advantages.

The US is now in a dilemma. If it fights China in the South China Sea, it will certainly lose as with the military bases on artificial islands and on shore, China is much stronger than any US fleets there. However, if the US fails to perform its treaty obligations there, its allies will lose confidence in it.

Comment by Chan Kai Yee on Reuters’ report, full text of which can be viewed at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-taiwan-diplomacy/dont-play-with-fire-on-taiwan-china-warns-u-s-idUSKBN2C00U5.

Source: Tiananmen’s Tremendous Achievements – The Danger of War Is in South China Sea Not Taiwan

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Categories: Defence & Aerospace

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