America is furious, both of them. Conservatives are fed up with restrictions against a virus that has no symptoms. Liberals are fed up with Conservatives not entering panic mode with them. If you don’t believe in God, you will believe… Read More ›
economy
Cadence Column: Asia, April 6, 2020
The pneumoniavirus is having a detrimental effect on China. While Xi Jinping kicks China’s economy into full swing, the rest of the world is on full alert. Manufacturing moves home—whether to or from China. Countries seek alternate supply sourcing. Taiwan… Read More ›
Cadence Column: Asia, March 23, 2020
China’s in trouble—deep trouble. America pauses with the same hush of silence that swept the country from the outskirts of Washington to New Orleans in 1812, gathering around the radio in 1941, or staring at the same TV images on… Read More ›
China’s economy suffers heavy blow as epidemic paralyzes activity
China’s industrial output contracted at the sharpest pace in 30 years in the first two months of the year as the fast spreading coronavirus and strict containment measures severely disrupted the world’s second-largest economy, data showed on Monday. Urban investment… Read More ›
Cadence Column: Asia, December 16, 2019
China is desperately grasping for straws. While German parliament is planning to ban Huawei against the will of their head of state, Chancellor Merkel, a Chinese ambassador sends a message that “there will be consequences”—when diplomatic channels go to the… Read More ›
China is not as strong as it seems
American opinion has moved away from its once-benign view of China. That older view, still favored by many business people, held that a prosperous China would threaten its neighbors less than a poor China, and anyway would offer the United… Read More ›
Cadence Column: Asia, November 18, 2019
America and China are getting fed up with China and America being fed up with each other. Americans tried patience and negotiations; that didn’t work. China hid its agenda for global domination, denouncing so-called “interference” except when China did the… Read More ›
Chinese bank on verge of collapse after sudden bank run
First it was Baoshang Bank , then it was Bank of Jinzhou, then, two months ago, China’s Heng Feng Bank with 1.4 trillion yuan in assets, quietly failed and was just as quietly nationalized. Today, a fourth prominent Chinese bank… Read More ›
China’s economy is getting worse. That makes a trade deal more likely
China’s economic slowdown keeps getting worse. That could give the country incentive to repair its trading relationship with the United States and take more steps to stimulate its economy. The country released data Monday that showed industrial production — an… Read More ›
A lot is at stake for China’s economy as Hong Kong protests drag on
Concerns over Hong Kong’s political and economic future are growing as pro-democracy protests drag on and turn increasingly violent, and China makes clear that forceful intervention is possible. An intervention by Chinese troops could seriously damage Hong Kong’s standing as… Read More ›
Trump’s trade war has led to a historically weak Chinese currency
Global currencies have been pushed front-and-center as trade tensions between the US and China have escalated. Of particular interest to many watchers is the relative strength of the dollar versus the Chinese yuan, which sits at multiyear lows. On Friday,… Read More ›
India, The Philippines and Indonesia will overtake China as top drivers of global economy
India and the Philippines will be the top drivers of global economic growth over the next decade, beating China. That’s according to an Oxford Economics study published earlier this year, which ranks the top ten emerging market economies to dominate… Read More ›
China is close to a financial crisis
China haters have been waiting for a financial crisis out of China since at least the early 2000s. Each and every time, the People’s Bank of China’s plunge protection team or the central planners in Beijing would throw buckets of… Read More ›
Cadence Column: Asia, June 24, 2019
We are not headed to a Second Cold War. We are not at risk of heading to a Second Cold War. We are traveling at trans-warp speed toward the First Flash War. It will start and end quickly, laying the… Read More ›
US-China ‘trade’ war, if not ended soon, may spill over to ‘finance’
“On the international monetary front, the key problem was the acute dollar shortage in post-war Europe … In the effort to reconstruct a viable Western Europe, the United States conceded degrees of protection and discrimination in trade that were incompatible… Read More ›
Cadence Column: Asia, April 15, 2019
Events in China are playing out according to the “Pacific Daily Times Symphony Asian Mad Scientist Theorem“. The experimental phase in North Korea is finished and methods are being applied throughout China on a much grander scale. This week, we… Read More ›
Businesses struggle as cracks appear in China’s economy
Cracks are opening in China’s mighty economy: investors are backing away from deals, factories are moving abroad and companies are shedding jobs. The world’s second-largest economy is losing steam, hitting its slowest growth in almost three decades last year, and… Read More ›
Cadence Column: Asia, November 26, 2018
Taiwan held something akin to a “mid-term” election this past Saturday. The people revolted against the previous revolt. When electing the DPP two years ago, the people were fed up with the capitulation policies of Ma. Now, they are fed… Read More ›
Cadence Column: Asia, October 8, 2018
China’s political, socioeconomic worldview is that of a zero-sum game. It has played its socioeconomic game that way for decades. Now, it must empty its reserve coffers to keep its zero-sum game strategy from sinking too fast. This means that… Read More ›
Cadence Column: Asia, July 30, 2018
The “China miracle” was nothing more than smoke and mirrors as big companies of the West took advantage of Chinese people seeking a living and Western consumers seeking lower prices. Everyone lost. There was no “miracle”. The fad for cutting… Read More ›
Cadence Column: Asia, July 23, 2018
Central planning has only so much room for slight of hand tricks to keep up its sleeve. When the going gets tough, everyone goes home. For China, that means devaluing its currency, a complaint Trump has long lobbed against the… Read More ›
Cadence Column: Asia, June 18, 2018
Trump has stopped military exercises near North Korea, but he has not initiated any plans to withdraw troops. His reason for stopping the exercises is that they are provocative and expensive. He has a point: If the heads of state… Read More ›
Cadence Column: Asia, April 16, 2018
The war with China is becoming the war with Russia and China, it’s economic, it’s culminating, and Britain is double-involved. Since the strike on Syria, Russia is angry and thumping the drums. They promised retaliation before. After, they really promised… Read More ›
Cadence Column: Asia, January 15, 2018
Jeffery Lewis at the Daily Beast has finally found a solution to the problem with North Korea: Kim Jong Un’s port-a-potty. By bombing the dynastic successor’s port-a-potty, the US would demonstrate both precision and presence. This would be the proverbial… Read More ›
Cadence Column: Asia, September 18, 2017
China’s situation is growing more and more similar to North Korea’s. They seek to “match” the US in military strength, but aim to do so without US economics. Without the economics it will be hard to match anything. Slowly, but… Read More ›
Cadence Column: Asia, April 24, 2017
All eyes on Korea means all eyes on China, which means all eyes on Trump. What’s at stake?—not nuclear war, not regional war, not freedom for northern Koreans, but a trade deal with China. At least, that’s the story if… Read More ›
Cadence Column: Asia, February 27, 2017
Americans love flags. The over-sized flag, the “Star Spangled Banner”, was a strategic tool of Fort McHenry at the Battle of Baltimore and the US national anthem itself is named after the flag. If the United States ever truly intended… Read More ›
China to ban foreign companies from online media business
The ruling Chinese Communist Party has announced new regulations that will ban foreign companies from publishing online media, games and other “creative” content within China’s borders from next month. The “Regulations for the management of online publishing services” also ban… Read More ›
The truth behind China’s exchange rate delusion
The current bout of anxiety is a symptom of the fact that China’s transition from an export-led growth strategy is proceeding far less smoothly than hoped China’s management of its exchange rate peg continues to rattle global financial markets. Uncertainty… Read More ›
The currency dictatorship and China’s action plan
The last time a country decided to dump the dollar in the oil business, the US destroyed it. Now India, the world’s third largest economy, and Iran have agreed to settle their outstanding oil dues in rupees. What’s more, the… Read More ›
Ghost cities show China crisis, but is the Chinese furniture market still interesting?
Yujiapu is one of the most impressive ghost cities in China. An almost empty agglomerate of half-finished buildings and skyscrapers modelled on Manhattan’s skyline. Many say it’s one of the most scary landmark of China’s failed ambitions: a ghost city… Read More ›
China threatens sanctions against U.S. companies
China’s recent threat to impose sanctions on U.S. defence companies that sell arms to Taiwan should come as no surprise to American officials or corporate executives: Washington has been issuing sanctions of these sorts for years. It was only a… Read More ›
China halts stock trading after 7% rout triggers circuit breaker
The worst-ever start to a year for Chinese shares triggered a trading halt in more than $7 trillion of equities, futures and options, putting the nation’s new market circuit breakers to the test on their first day. Trading was halted… Read More ›
Cool War: United States and China in the future of the global competition
Are we on the edge of a new Cold War era? Or, alternatively, every power struggle mindset has to be considered a lost legacy of the XX century and we’re headed to a new era of global cooperation? These are… Read More ›
China pledges $60 billion in funding support to Africa
Chinese President Xi Jinping announced Friday that the country will pledge a new round of funding support to Africa‘s development, worth $60 billion. Analysts had wondered if the pace of Chinese investment in Africa would slow, particularly in infrastructure projects,… Read More ›
Understanding the two Chinas
Our view that China may be heading for a mild cyclical upswing next year needs to be set against the background of the broader economy, which is changing rapidly. We think that it makes sense to view the economy as… Read More ›
China has a $1.2 trillion Ponzi finance problem
Chinese borrowers are taking on record amounts of debt to repay interest on their existing obligations, raising the risk of defaults and adding pressure on policy makers to keep financing costs low. The amount of loans, bonds and shadow finance… Read More ›
Can China’s consumers save the world economy?
Long the place that makes stuff and doesn’t consume much, China is set to redress the balance. And thus, some say, rescue the troubled global economy. But it’s a stretch to think that Beijing’s plan — shifting the export-driven country… Read More ›
China keen to promote its idea for Asia-Pacific trade pact at Apec in Manila
Beijing will report back on a study for Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific just days after the release of details of a US-led agreement China will seek to push its own vision of an Asia-Pacific trade pact at a… Read More ›
The one thing holding back China’s yuan
While China may be the world’s second largest economy, the future of the yuan playing a bigger role in international markets is clouded by politics. Earlier this fall, the IMF postponed a scheduled update of the designated basket of reserve… Read More ›
China’s economy is worse than you think
The unreliability of Chinese official economic data has become almost a cliche. A few years before he became China’s premier, Li Keqiang said that the country’s numbers were “man-made” and “for reference only.” If the top economic policy maker of a… Read More ›
What could really disrupt China’s economy?
In an earlier post, I explained why I’m still bullish on China’s economy. But as the events of the past few months have shown, the risks of economic disruption are real. Here are several potential risks that could throw China’s… Read More ›
A massive Chinese industry is flashing warning signs that the world cannot ignore
China’s steel industry, the world’s biggest, is in crisis. The disaster is the result of a combination of factors, including a slowing Chinese economy, falling commodity prices, and an industry loaded with debt. Earlier this month, state-owned enterprise (SOE) Sinosteel… Read More ›
10 things the Communist Party wants you to believe about China’s next five-year plan
The Chinese newspaper that serves as the ruling Communist Party’s mouthpiece has outlined 10 objectives that are expected to lead to breakthroughs on the mainland in the next five years. The targets were revealed on thePeople’s Daily’s Weibo account as… Read More ›
China says it should join TPP, even though it wasn’t invited
China should join at an appropriate time the U.S.-backed regional trade accord the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as its broad aims are in line with China’s own economic reform agenda, an influential Communist Party newspaper said on Sunday. China is not… Read More ›
As old China slows, new China remains closed to foreign firms: ‘The worst time for multinationals’
As China’s old economy slumps, service industries from banking to telecommunications are poised to take up the slack. The catch for American and other foreign firms: They’re locked out of these new growth drivers. Overseas banks and life insurers have… Read More ›
For Hollywood, the road to China is littered with broken deals – the perils of doing business with China
Hollywood talent agent Jeff Berg flew to Shanghai last summer to celebrate one of his biggest deals — a partnership with Chinese investors in Resolution, his new agency in Century City. Two hundred business executives, government officials, actors and journalists… Read More ›
Nerves on edge as Chinese authorities probe market mayhem
The head of hedge fund manager Man Group Plc’s (EMG.L) China business has been taken into custody to help authorities in a probe into recent market volatility, Bloomberg reported on Monday, while separately a local financial reporter confessed on national… Read More ›
China’s meltdown shows the country is out of control
The world’s second-largest economy may be able to stem a financial crisis, but don’t count on it to stimulate the world’s economy. Global stock markets have rebounded after the shock of Black Monday, but worries over the Chinese economy are… Read More ›
China wants great power without great responsibility
Forty-three years after Richard Nixon made his famous visit to China, that country has seemingly decided to take a page from the former U.S. president’s Treasury Department. As China lowers the value of the yuan, the country’s economic policy makers… Read More ›
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